Understanding The War In Ukraine: Looking Beyond The Surface (Part One)

 

By Dr. Sylvester Tabe Arrey (st.arrey@yahoo.com)

(Sylvester is a Lecturer in the Department of International Relations and Conflict Resolution, University of Buea, Cameroon)

This piece seeks to contribute in deepening the public's knowledge and understanding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. What is Ukraine's offence? Why has Russia chosen to launch an offensive at this point and what exactly does it seek to achieve? What will happen next and where is the world heading? These and other questions have been attended to here. It may end up being a long piece but I appeal on you to exercise some patience and come along with me.

On the international stage, states don't have permanent friends. Friendship lasts for only as long as the other party is still relevant to the fulfilment of their interests. It is common for them to share a bed with one party today and avoid them the next if their interests change and the fellow becomes irrelevant or too dangerous to stay close. Common interests, it is worth iterating, is the glue that keeps them together and fans the flame of their friendship to burn bigger and brighter. The USSR, the US, the UK and France were, for instance, allies during the Second World War. As a team, they battled valiantly against Germany and its allies, sharing many sweet and memorable moments. But after the war, and to the surprise of many who watched their inspiring romance, though not so much to those who understood how the international system works, things changed from cooperation to confrontation as the USSR became the fiercest and most bitter enemy of its former friends. The world was plunged in a costly and robustly fought ideological war, the Cold War, which restructured its political configuration and ushered in a bipolar system comprising the Communist East, led by Russia, and the Capitalist West, led by the United States. Both blocs didn’t want to see the other and their allies. Any bad thing that happened to them was good news in the other camp worth popping some wine for.

The end of the Cold War only ended the 'war part' of the matter, not the 'cold part.' Make no mistake, please! This is where many miss it. Trust never fully returned despite the open toasts, well wishes and kind words for each other. Like Germany's dissatisfaction with the Paris Peace Treaties of 1919, especially with the Treaty of Versailles, which made it always dream of having that colossal 'historical error' corrected, until it eventually risked everything and started the Second World War, Russia is profoundly grieved by the disintegration of the Soviet Union and is still regretting why that ever happened. If only it can turn back the hands of time and rectify some of its errors! It preferred the war to pass without taking away the USSR. But it did and that structure is now history. President Putin says this openly, hiding nothing. His country gets highly provoked each time anyone tries to reopen that wound and cause it to bleed anew. It is inadmissible to insinuate that they dared the invincible. Russia sees itself as a great country which only made costly mistakes it must not repeat. It wasn't in any way weak and doesn't want to ever be. 

Now, protecting what is left of Russia and stopping the countries that are habitually lumped and called 'the West' from hurting or gaining any advantage over it have remained among Moscow's foremost priorities for which it is willing to risk anything.

That is why in many of the Treaties and Agreements signed with the West since 1990, Russia emphasised the need for no one to gamble with its security. Its safety is non-negotiable and must stay beyond any kind of menace, simple or complex. In fact, it always says that the West must never try to grow in size at its expense. He has always insisted that NATO, the security alliance of the West, must not expand eastward even by one inch. But NATO has been expanding through the admission of Eastern European countries that were formerly under the Soviet Union into the Alliance. While the West is delighted and sees this as additions made out of the free choice of those countries, Russia is bitter and greatly outraged. It sees that as a cunning and manipulative behaviour from the West which makes it untrustworthy because it always acts shamelessly in violation of international law.

It argues that through lies, treachery and political machinations, the United States and its Western allies have made the world their world. Many international laws and documents are a reflection of their culture and way of life. Whoever adheres to them is good and worth supporting but whoever complains or has a different approach is bad and on the wrong side of history. Such deserve to be attacked or given a negative tag - the commonest these days being 'terrorists' and 'dictators.' President Putin recently argued that they only respect laws when their interests are met. When that's not the case, they violate them and use different arguments as justifications to cover things up and stay beyond litigation. He cited the case of Iraq which was attacked by the US and its allies, without the authorisation of the UN, and had its legitimate president ousted for allegedly possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) when in reality, there was nothing. Hans Blix, the Head of the UN Inspection Team, had said there was nothing but because the weighty voice of Washington boys and girls like Condoleezza Rice and espeially Colin Powell (US Secretary of State) is something never to be ignored, Iraq had to undergo what the White House wanted. Putin added Belgrade, Syria and Libya to the list, arguing that people's lives have been ruined and devastated forever in an unjust manner by those who are out to plunder and control.

But one will be naïve to think that Russia doesn't tell the same lies it accuses others of and that President Putin speaks only truth. Last week, for instance, as Russia increased the presence of its troops around the Ukrainian border, the Russian President was asked if he plans to attack Ukraine and he said he can't do such a thing, adding that the plan was instead to reduce the number of his troops in the area by sending some home. Not very long after that assurance, he attacked Ukraine from the air, land and sea and reduced entire neighbourhoods to rubble.  If there is one leader Washington is very careful of and rarely believes, it is President Putin. That is partly why President Trump had tough times and sour moments with many within the US political class, both Democrats and Republicans, because he believed Mr. Putin in many instances and drifted in his direction as a friend. 

It should be noted that states don't see these as lies but as a strategy to wade off obstacles and thwart the calculations of the adversary. It dribbles whoever fails to be smart enough to count their teeth with their tongue and understand that rain comes whenever the weather darkens as a result of the gathering of nimbus clouds, and doesn't need anyone to admit it.

Since NATO has expanded up to the states that are neighbours to Ukraine, Russia feels really threatened and considers Ukraine a strategic territory worth using its last card on. He has warned the West on many occasions not to come as close as Ukraine. The two are neighbours, meaning from Ukraine, one gets into Russia. Allowing the West or allowing the Ukrainian government in Kyiv to allow the West to get so close is as dangerous as sleeping with a ticking bomb and still be hoping that the future is bright. Western governments also don't want a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. That is why Ukrainian affairs are of immense interest to both the Kremlin and western capitals. As things stand, Russia will step into Ukraine and shut its ears from talks about sovereignty whenever Ukraine begins to go in a direction it considers dangerous. Ukraine must behave well and not allow itself to become the altar on which Russia will be sacrificed. The Kremlin sees it as a matter of life and death and will slap really hard in an unmerciful manner in such instances just as others also do during crucial moments when they face threats and use their power to change the narrative and stop the law from hitting them flat.

One may wonder why Russia should be worried about NATO's presence and arms in Ukraine which is a different country. It is Ukraine, not Russia. This is the simple reason: states don't want arms from a faraway territory, especially from a perceived enemy, deployed close to them no matter the reason. Russia deployed some dangerous and powerful missiles in Cuba, a neighbour to the United States, in 1962, and this caused the US to lose its sleep until the day they were removed. It triggered a serious crisis, the Cuban Missile Crisis, which almost led to a serious war between the two superpowers and their allies had it not been for the brilliance and diplomatic ingenuity of Nikita Khrushchev and J.F. Kennedy. 

When Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian politician was president of Ukraine, for instance, Russia didn't complain about the country; it was the West that mostly did the job of complaining. But after 2014 when Mr. Yanukovych was overthrown after protests believed to have been orchestrated by western intelligence bodies, and a pro-Western government took over in Kyiv, Russia has had all kinds of complaints against Ukraine. It sees nothing good from there. It's been backing separatist groups there like Donbass to help them become independent so as to weaken the central government in Kyiv or reduce Ukraine's size and power. It is obvious that those breakaway territories will be used by Russia alongside others like Belarus to counter any western bad intentions, should the worst happen and Ukraine officially joins the west and becomes a member of NATO.

Before the recent attack, Russia pressed many buttons to provoke Ukraine and make it react in a way that will give it a pretext to attack but Ukraine stayed calm. It was surely receiving advice from Western governments and their intelligence services on how to behave in a time like this. When the Russians pushed further and the Ukrainians were not doing anything to legitimise what they intended doing, Moscow changed its tactic and complained more about far-right nationalists and Pro-Nazis in Ukraine, highlighting the danger they constitute. It holds that they are the leaders and decision makers in Ukraine. But President Volodymr Zelensky, who is of Jewish ancestry, refutes this as an empty claim which doesn't reflect Ukraine's reality. Putin  spoke of the need to respect the right to self-determination of the people of Donbass and others who don't want to be in Ukraine. Kyiv is pounding them without mercy and they're crying for help from Russia since the rest of the world is not listening to their groaning and lamentation, goes the argument. Though Ukraine didn't react as Moscow wanted, what had to be done had to still be done, anyway.

Addressing the issue of the territories which desire freedom from Ukraine and explaining why he chose to launch an offensive, President Putin said: "In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia's Federation Council, and in execution of the Treaties of Friendship and Mutual Assistance with Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a Special Military Operation. The purpose of this operation is to protect people who for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation. It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force."

Numerous sanctions, especially from the West, have followed this action. Russia is facing serious isolation. The country may retaliate in its own way. It has what it takes to stand for a while. A giant of frightful stature, it is the world's largest country, spanning nine time zones and covering one-eighth of the earth's inhabitable landmass. It is the main source of gas to many other European countries and a heavyweight on the international stage, bordering sixteen sovereign nations with numerous resources beneath its soil. Given that the sanctions are many, Russia will face hard times if they are effective and well implemented.

The unfortunate part is that the global atmosphere has gone gloomy and dark. The conflict is getting even more pregnant. Actors are prepared for the worst. They're getting their most dangerous and trusted weapons ready, and pulling up their sleeves for action. Putin has put his nuclear troops on high alert. If any of the camps uses nuclear weapons, other states will retaliate proportionately with theirs. But it is unlikely that things will get to this point. Their mention of nuclear weapons is a tactic to warn the adversary not to dare their red line. They are aware that any nuclear war at this age of advanced technology will result in mutual annihilation and extinction of species on earth. That is certainly not what they want. But these events should make everyone feel concerned because if even 1% of the current stock of nuclear weapons in the possession of states ever gets used, the whole earth will be terribly destroyed that only the luckiest persons will survive to tell the tale.

Part Two of this piece will unveil other crucial realities of this conflict and contribute in positioning readers at an angle where they can easily view things clearer for themselves and be able to make more informed predictions on what the future holds. Watch the space!